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Which way for Egypt?

http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR1bPbmvO0rxe5b5FDwX51pmZjcutQQYIdi7EacnFkkUpM4EKyFAs has been suspected, the deputy leader of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt said that his party will not recognize Israel nor the Peace Treaty. (Reported by Jerusalem Post.)

This was expected earlier on even when the Brotherhood had toned down it’s policy on Israel publicly before the elections in Egypt.  But now after their election victory (they and the Salafists have won nearly 65% of the seats in Parliament) they’re emboldened to behave with greater ferocity and overconfidence.

Having said this, the one wildcard here is the Egyptian military, SCAF.  It could use this and similar policy statements by the Muslim Brotherhood as the reason for preventing them from taking power, and it would be perfectly understandable to the world stage: “we cannot let the Islamists destroy our nation, so we must take action.”  That would be the smartest strategy for the military. (Is it any wonder why there was a Mubarak and military rule in Egypt — as well as autocratic regimes in Arab states?  The reason for their existence is the much more dangerous alternatives like these bellicose Islamist regimes.)

The alternative, if the Egyptian military lets the Islamists to have their way, is that Egypt will descend further into savagery, and Israel will have the right — if the Peace Treaty is abrogated — to retake the Sinai Peninsula, being as it is strategically essential to its security, to cordon off Hamas in Gaza, and show Egyptians what a dumb mistake they made choosing such a belligerent entity to rule over their nation — an entity that seeks not to rebuild their nation but cause it to descend into war.  In fact, Israel could rightly proceed to do this preemptively without waiting until the matter gets worse. Such a threat by Israel could push SCAF to do the right thing. But the question is what is SCAF going to do? What, if anything, will or can the US do about it? We’ll see what path nature takes.

The problem is further exacerbated by the threat that Iran poses to Israel. The boundary of danger is growing for Israel: Iran, Hamas, Lebanon, and now Egypt. These must prompt some decision making and a strategy for action — perhaps even a preemptive one if necessary.

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